The latest trade talks between China and the U.S. in South Korea have yielded positive news. Starting November 10th, U.S. tariffs on certain Chinese goods will be reduced by 10%, and port service fees for vessels with a U.S. or Chinese nexus will be suspended for one year. It has been reported that China-to-U.S. e-commerce container bookings increased by 300% just hours after the new trade policy was announced.

That being said, exporters remain concerned about policy uncertainty, as the tariff reductions and fee suspensions are only valid for one year. Furthermore, with overall tariffs on Chinese goods still at a high level, exporters are not overly optimistic about a significant increase in volume.

Amid these policy changes, airlines are attempting to push air freight rates higher during this traditional peak season to secure more favorable BSA contract rates for 2026. However, freight forwarders are exercising caution, as the current cargo volume remains significantly lower than the peak volume seen at the same time last year.

So, what are the major contributors to air volume on the China-U.S. lane?

1.Aluminum rolls and e-cigarettes have been the primary contributors on China-to-ORD and China-to-JFK routes.

2. Electronics, such as Apple products.

3. Automotive parts for companies like Tesla.

4. E-commerce shipments. With major promotional events like Black Friday approaching, large e-commerce platforms have already begun stockpiling inventory.

What factors will affect the rate trend in Week 46?

1.A surge in demand from e-commerce platforms could push air freight rates even higher.

2.2. The U.S. government shutdown, combined with extreme weather in Anchorage (ANC)—a key technical stop for most China-to-U.S. freighters—is predicted to cause further flight delays later this week. This will reduce airline capacity and drive rates up.